Recently Fox has suggested and evaluated several non-Bayesian rules for the problem of the two-armed bandit. In this paper several Bayesian rules for this problem are compared with the best of Fox's ...

Having a strong opinion about an issue can make it hard to take in new information about it, or to consider other options when they’re presented. Thankfully, there’s an old rule that can help us avoid ...

SCIENCE, being a human activity, is not immune to fashion. For example, one of the first mathematicians to study the subject of probability theory was an English clergyman called Thomas Bayes, who was ...

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

Bayes' theorem, also called Bayes' rule or Bayesian theorem, is a mathematical formula used to determine the conditional probability of events. The theorem uses the power of statistics and probability ...

Animals living in groups make movement decisions that depend, among other factors, on social interactions with other group members. Our present understanding of social rules in animal collectives is ...

Nate Silver, baseball statistician turned political analyst, gained a lot of attention during the 2012 United States elections when he successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential vote in ...

Chris Wiggins, an associate professor of applied mathematics at Columbia University, offers this explanation. A patient goes to see a doctor. The doctor performs a test with 99 percent ...

In The Theory That Would Not Die, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne tells the surprisingly gripping story of the theorem that pervades modern life FEW single ideas can boast such an impressive résumé. What else ...

What links modern cosmology to 18th-century musings on billiards? The answer lies in a theorem devised by amateur mathematician Thomas Bayes AN ENGLISH cleric pondering balls on a billiard table is ...